Mindanao Power Updates

MINDANAO POWER SITUATIONER

2011-01-08T11:08:00.002+08:00

Mindanao Power Situation:
COAL POWER, A Better Choice?

By:
HIO TIAO W. LIM

About the Author: The Author is a Davao City based, practicing CPA, with a 30 year background exposure in the Electric Power Industry, an active Intervenor in Energy Regulatory Commission hearings conducted in the Mindanao Field Office in Davao City.

The Current Situation

The Mindanao Grid as of JANUARY 7, 2011 a dependable capacity of 1374 MW. Of which 717 MW is Hydro Power Plants, 210 MW is coal power plants, 100MW is Geothermal Power Plants, and 347 MW is fuel Oil power plants.

The Current Demand of 1044MW represents the normal load curve for January 2011
There is still a comfortable reserve of 285 MW. figures are NGCP postings at www.ngcp.ph/so.asp)

Forward looking scenario into 2014-15

The Peak Demand in the Mindanao Grid historically happens in the Month of December, unlike in Luzon where the Peak Demand occurs in the summer months of April and May.

The Peak Demand Increase annually ranges from 50 MW to 80 MW depending on the economic condition, and of course the weather conditions attendant therein which is attributable to Climate Change.

Given this scenario, the Reserve Margin will be wiped out in around three years or at the start of year 2014.

But the Department of Energy says otherwise, the DOE website indicates that of the 1,929 MW installed capacity as of 2009, there is a dependable capacity of 1, 697 MW, given some degree of degradation, there is still a comfortable MW of dependable capacity.
However the sale of the Power Barges 117 and 118 to the Aboitiz Power’s Therma Marine Inc. has depleted the generation capacity directly under the control of the National Power Corporation /. PSALM by 200 MW.

It is for this reason that the NAPOCOR/PSALM advised all its customers in the Mindanao Grid to expect power supply curtailment starting January 2011 as there is already a FORECASTED GENERATION DEFICIENCY for the whole year of 2011.

However, AMRECO and the Department of Energy disputes this Forecasted Generation Deficiency, (see attached position paper of AMERCO)

The Choices Mindanao Power Consumers have:

Generate your own back up power in case of power supply outages: Using gasoline fueled generators will add up to P 60.00 per kwh in residential customers, diesel fed back up generators would use up P 12.00 – P 20.00 per kwh in fuel cost alone.

Buy Solar Panels for home use, buy rechargeable lanterns and fans, for residential users.

Stop operations for the day, for manufacturing companies provided there is an assurance of constant power the rest of the working week; this is the same as the Voluntary Load Curtailment Program which was initiated in the Luzon Grid during the Power Crisis in the 1990’s. A whole day a week of non operation is definitely better than having to contend with UNPREDICTABLE DAILY POWER INTERRUPTIONS.

COAL POWER, A LONG TERM SOLUTION

The power crisis that the Mindanao Grid suffered during the first half of the year 2010, could have actually started hitting the island in the year 2007, had not the 210 MW STEAG COAL POWER PLANT in Misamis Oriental gone in operation in the last quarter of 2006.

There is no question that Coal Power affects the environment, but there is no dispute to the effect that ALL Power Plants, whether Renewable or not has an effect to the environment, whether directly or indirectly

There is no other option for now, but to go Coal to avert another debilitating power crisis as critical as we had LAST year.

With the new technology adopted ( Circulating Fluidized Bed ), the problem of air pollution has been mitigated, this CFB technology is similar to the Cyclone Dust Collector which was required to be installed in manufacturing companies in the early 1980’s to address the smoke, ash and related emissions then.

Update on Davao Light's Monthly Rate Schedule for September..

2010-09-08T20:23:00.002+08:00

There's a little bit of good news for Davao Light and Power Company power
consumers. The onset of the rainy/wet season which virtually filled up the
hydro plants capacity has greatly offset the PBR related increase in the
Distribution Charges of Davao Light and Power Company.

The total kwh increase over the August 2010 billing month is just an average
of 30 centavos per kwh for secondary customers and just about P 100/KW for
load customers.

This compares to the ERC Mandated Refund by the NGCP to Mindanao power consumers
for the billing month of July ( reflected on the consumer bills August 2010 ) of
P 229.10/KW.

Let us pray for the full normalization of the level in the Lanao and Bukidnon
watershed areas, so that the fuel-fed plants will have minimal use.

SEMA Power Outage Explanation ( August 24, 2010 )

2010-08-25T10:06:00.002+08:00

The total power outage the whole Davao Region ( SEMA )
experienced yesterday at around 5.30 pm was caused by
a fault in the Kibawe Maramag line, according to the
NGCP last night.

This is a normal occurrence if the reserves are thin
to cover the start-up current required when the load
starts to peak up.

There should be proper coordination between load customers
and NGCP to avert future incidents of this kind.

The author is available anytime to meet indutry leaders\
to explain this phenomena and other vital matters.

DAVAO LIGHT AND POWER COMPANY'S INCREASE TEMPERED BY NGCP DECREASE

2010-08-11T08:02:00.002+08:00

Yes, Davao Light and Power Company Increased its Distribution Charges
by 29.58 centavos for residential customers effective August 2010 Billing.

However, the NGCP was ordered by ERC to Credit Back P 229.10/ KW it
charged MINDANAO Consumers last February and March 2010.

Hence the marked decrease in the TOTAL POWER COST

It's almost August, get ready to tighten belts as Distribution Rates of DLPC go up.

2010-07-25T11:47:00.002+08:00

It is almost August, 2010.

WE DLPC COSTUMERS SHOULD TIGHTEN BELTS AS DLPC IS SLATED TO
IMPLEMENT THE ERC APPROVED PBR RATES OF DLPC, to the tune
of P 0.30 per kwh.

The author is still recovering from the Dengue Attack which
affected him and his 3 kids.

DLPC May 2010 and projected July Rates

2010-06-03T15:10:00.002+08:00

For lack of material time and finances, please wait for a few
days for the final post.

King Cobra's getting visible... signs of an earthquake

2010-03-11T21:38:00.002+08:00

This blog is in reaction to the reported sightings of King Cobras in Mati Davao Oriental.

If you read my earlier posts, there is ample time to conduct emergency drills all over the
Island of Mindanao, specially the major cities.

Unusual animal behavior such as these report incidents are portents of a magnitude 8
quake to happen within two weeks.

Of course we do have to PRAY that these events will not come to pass and compound
our problems in electric power.

Mindanao Power Deficiency hits a peak of 748 MW yesterday

2010-03-11T21:30:00.002+08:00

The Power Deficiency hit an all time high of 748 MW yesterday March 10, 2010.

This author sounded and echoes the call of Secretary Angelo Reyes for the implementation
of Demand-Side Management and energy efficiency undertakings.

Demand - Side Managment and Energy Efficiency has been my lifetime advocacy since 1981.

Today's Congressional Hearing on the Mindanao Power Crisis brought to fore my advocacy
in the public limelight for a purpose, no its a double purpose, you may contact me at 09102929323
to know what those purposes are.

I SPOKE TOO SOON, POWER DEFICIT IN MINDANAO TO HIT 900 MW

2010-03-07T15:33:00.002+08:00

I think it is better to be pro-active in the power supply problem
here in Mindanao, today is a Sunday, but the generation deficiency has reach
652 Mega Watts:

It will might as well hit 900 MW before the Araw ng Dabaw celebration.

THE NATIONWIDE POWER CRISIS TODAY

2010-03-01T16:03:00.002+08:00

POWER SYSTEM UPDATE as of March 1, 2010*

Power transmission utility and system operator National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) reports the power grid status today as follows:

Grid	Available Capacity (in megawatts, MW)	Peak Demand (in megawatts, MW)	Reserves (in megawatts, MW)	Generation Deficiency (in megawatts, MW)
LUZON	6,177	6,655	0	478
VISAYAS	1,133	1,178	0	45
MINDANAO	820	1,210	0	390

Luzon grid, which previously had all running power plants connected and synchronized to the grid, now has a generation deficiency of 478 MW. The sudden decrease in the available capacity when compared with previous days' figures is attributed to the shutdown of two major plants namely, Sual 1 (647 MW) operated by Team Energy Philippines and Masinloc 1 (315 MW) owned and operated by AES Corp.

Outages lasting two to three hours will be experienced by Luzon grid's load customers. Metro Manila and Luzon residents are advised to coordinate directly with their respective distribution utilities and electric cooperatives for information on the power interruption schedule and list of specific areas which will experience temporary power outage.

Visayas grid has a generation deficiency of 45 MW. Salcon Power's Cebu Thermal Power Plant Unit 1 is operational and already loaded with 48 MW but Unit 2 with a rated capacity of 55 MW is under preventive maintenance shutdown. Estimated completion date of maintenance works is on March 7.

Mindanao grid continues to experience generation deficiency of up to 390 MW today. This is attributed mainly to limited available capacities from hydro power plants, most of which have water reservoirs that are drying up due to the el nino.

There has been an 80% reduction in the capabilities of National Power Corporation's (Napocor) Agus Hydro-electric Power Plants. Pulangi Plant, also owned by Napocor, experienced 90% reduction in capabilities. Lake Lanao elevation as of 0600H yesterday is 699.08 meters, which is below the critical level of 699.15 meters.

Also contributing to limitations in Mindanao's available capacities is the non-availability of Iligan Diesel Power Plant (35 MW) and Power Barge 117 (100 MW).

NGCP will continue to monitor power grid conditions. As System Operator, it operates the power system or grid in accordance with the Philippine Grid Code. It is also the country's only utility responsible for transmitting high-voltage power from generators to distributors. NGCP does not own nor operate and maintain any power generation and distribution facilities. ###

*Data as of 0600H

The current power crisis and its effect on consumers

2010-02-24T22:31:00.002+08:00

The Mindanao Grid is currently suffering from a Generation Shortfall of over 400 MW.

Power interruption will stay with us as long as the El Niño Phenomenon will not end, which
is expected to by the start of July 2010.

With the significant use of bunker fuel / diesel for generation, the Generation Charge will
shoot up by an average of P 2.00 / Kwh should the cost be instantaneously be recovered.

To mitigate the effects of the power interruption, everyone is enjoined to do their laundry
and ironing activities after 10 Pm., this way the Peak Demand can still be shaved significantly.

NGCP FEB 24 2010 ADVISORY

2010-02-24T22:30:00.000+08:00

POWER SYSTEM UPDATE as of February 24, 2010

Power transmission utility and system operator National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) noted that there has been a slight increase in the power reserves of Luzon grid from 662 MW yesterday to 684 MW today.

This could be attributed to the increased capabilities of Kepco’s Ilijan Plant Block B from 400 MW to 450 MW and Binga Plant (owned by SN Aboitiz Power) from 0 MW to 75 MW. Casecnan Plant of Casecnan Power has also been producing an additional 65 MW for the grid.

With these sufficient reserves, the Luzon grid remains stable and under normal status. Provided all running power plants stay connected and synchronized to the grid, there will not be any outages among Luzon grid customers.

The power grid status today is as follows:

Grid	Available Capacity (in megawatts, MW)	Peak Demand (in megawatts, MW)	Reserves (in megawatts, MW)	Generation Deficiency (in megawatts, MW)
LUZON	7,579	6,895	684	0
VISAYAS	1,117	1,155	0	38
MINDANAO	863	1,220	0	357

To augment the available capacity of Visayas, Luzon will be exporting around 25 MW to 40 MW of power there.

In Mindanao, most hydroelectric power plant units owned and operated by the National Power Corporation (NPC) still have very limited capabilities due to the low water levels at reservoirs. There has been an 80% and 60% reduction in the available capacities of the Agus and Pulangi Plants, respectively.

As a result of the continuing generation deficiency in Mindanao, the system may be forced to undertake load curtailment to ration the available power to load customers in the said grid.

The Agus Plants are running at 137 MW out of total rated capacity of 694 MW while Pulangi Plant is running at 115 MW out of the total rated capacity of 255 MW.

NGCP's "load customers" refer to grid users which require the supply and delivery of electricity for their own use or for distribution purposes. Distribution utilities (i.e. electric cooperatives and private and government-owned utilities), some large industries, and directly connected government and non-government entities are some of NGCP's "load customers."

Household customers are advised to coordinate with distribution utilities in their area for information on the schedule and areas to be affected by the power interruptions.

UPDATES FROM NGCP

2010-02-24T22:24:00.001+08:00

POWER SYSTEM UPDATE as of February 22, 2010, 1300H

National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), as the System Operator, has announced that the continuing generation deficiency in the Mindanao grid has compelled the system to curtail the power load transmitted to grid customers from 1000H to 2200H today.

Generation deficiency occurs when the electricity supply generated from power plants is too low and may not be enough to meet the demand of power grid users.

The said deficiency is caused by the following:

Reduced capabilities of hydro electric plants due to low elevation at water reservoirs (70% reduction in the available capabilities at Agus and Pulangi Plants)

Non-availability of Iligan Diesel Power Plant (35 MW)

Planned outage of Power Barge 117 Unit 2 (50 MW)

A total of around 400 MW of power is expected to be curtailed in the Mindanao grid at 1300H.

Load curtailment is implemented to ration the available power and to ensure the reliability and stability of the entire power network.

Mindanao customers are advised to coordinate directly with distribution utilities or electric cooperatives in their area for the complete list of areas affected and the schedule of power interruptions.

Meanwhile, in the Visayas grid, available capacity this afternoon is 1,188 MW while demand is 1,165 MW. Power reserve is now 23 MW, a slight improvement from the 5 MW this morning. Expected to further improve grid conditions is the cutting in and synchronization to the grid of Power Barge 102 (5 MW) at around 1700H today.

Luzon grid continues to be stable and under normal status. Available capacity in Luzon grid this afternoon is 7,376 MW while demand is 6,624 MW. Power reserve is now 752 MW

Updates on Mindanao Generation Shortfall

2010-02-18T06:49:00.002+08:00

THE SHORTAGE IN GENERATED POWER IN MINDANAO HAS
STABILIZE AT 159 - 160 MW ON A WEEK-DAY

LESS THAN 100 MW ON A WEEK-END

LOAD SHIFTING BY ALL SECTORS CAN STILL SAVE THE DAY
FOR MINDANAO POWER USERS.

RESIDENTIAL USERS CAN
SHIFT THEIR WASHING MACHINE AND FLAT IRON USAGE
TO 10 PM AND BEYOND. ( SAVINGS IS 40 MW )

MANUFACTURING SECTORS CAN SHIFT TO GRAVEYARD
AND FREE THE 5 PM TO 10 PM PEAK HOURS ( SAVINGS 100 MW )

EL NIñO Starts the Brownout/Blackout Season in Mindanao

2010-02-10T15:23:00.000+08:00

El Niño starts the Brownout/Blackout Season in Mindanao.

The El Niño phenomenon has started the Brown-out/Black-out Season in Mindanao.
With the hydro plants operating at less than 50 percent of their dependable capacity.

The peak demand today was forecasted at 1,195 megawatts, while
the available capacity is only at 1,108 megawatts
leaving a deficit generation capacity of 87 mega watts

December 15, 2009 Updates

2009-12-15T19:45:00.000+08:00

As of today December 15, 2009., the Peak Demand in the Mindanao Grid
has reached the level of 1,300 MW as predicted by this author six months
ago.

With the Available Capacity of 1,366 MW. There is a reserve of 66 MW.

Undesecretary Zamzamin Ampatuan confirms this author's statement that
there in no power shortage in the Mindanao Grid as espoused by vested
interest's groups.

Davao City Council Chooses water over power in denying Hedcor Tamugan's
request for an endorsement..

As I have already pointed out in the various foras, a win-win solution is the
best if the contending parties will meet in between, however even if there
is an agreement... there should absolutely be no diversion of any portion
of the rivers.

Another Airline Catastrophe in the making ?

2009-11-30T03:27:00.000+08:00

I write this blog, in the middle of the night, due to a dream about an airliner
that crashed into a university in Metro Manila.

As I have said before, if my dreams are in technicolor, they are bound to
really happen. Give a three week window.

Please join me in prayer that this occurrence will not happen.

Thank you !

Weather Condition : a factor in Peak Demand

2009-11-26T07:52:00.000+08:00

The Changing Weather Condition plays a big factor in Peak Demand :

The Power outlook for today shows a Peak Demand of 1,138 MW.

The Available supply is 1,219 MW. showing a reserve of 81 MW.

The Weather Condition factor plays a significant amount of 100 MW.

Two Successive Earthquakes.. Signs of the Times

2009-11-17T14:12:00.000+08:00

Dear Fellow God-fearing Citizens of the World :

The two earthquakes Davao City experienced last night, November 16, and early morning today
November 17, 2009, are NOT the events which I have been fortelling since two weeks ago.

Thus this urgent post, and call for more meaningful and deeply rooted faith in prayer is needed.

Every one in this world we live in has a mission in life, no one is exempted. Once we reach the end of our journey in life, we will be asked: How did you live your life on Earth? Did you do as you were ordered to? Did you follow what was ordered you to do?

I was born into this world 49 years ago, left to the care of intimate family friends for 15 years, reunited with my own family for the next 18 years., and started to raise my own the last 16 years.

God gave me the gift of vision on Valentine’s Day of 1981, the very moment when my beloved grandfather died in a vehicular accident, and for the next 4 years, my grandfather came to visit me in my dreams., until 1985 when he brought me unto a very high mountain, to which he told me, “Bong, this is the point in time where I have to leave you as I have to move on., and as you walk through your journey of life, do not just be attentive of the thing right in front of you, you should look forward and beyond”.

I didn’t quite get the meaning, but when I dreamt of the Space Shuttle Challenger Explosion, right within my dream, at a distance of less than 20 feet, two hours before it occurred, I recalled what my grandfather told me.

On July 16, 1990 at 3PM in the afternoon, I knew that the great earthquake that would eventually awaken Mt. Pinatubo will happen only that it was too late in the day to go on the air to warn the people of the impending disaster.

Sometime October 1992, I dreamt of my winning the 2nd prize jackpot in the Mt. Pinatubo Sweepstakes draw of the Philippine charity Sweepstakes office, right in the hospital room where I was watching over my sick mother. I rejected the Sweepstakes winnings over the life of my own mother, and “gave” that prize away to employees of then William Lines Inc. ( My mother died of Colon Cancer last December 14, 2008 )

I got married in 1993, and immediately settled down here in Davao City, having a small business of my own in Chinatown.

In mid 1995, I again had a dream, which showed the total destruction of Metro Manila by an earthquake emanating from the Marikina Valley Fault Line.

I immediately called up my friend in Radio Veritas, to inform them of such dream together with a call for midnight prayers and meditation to avert the catastrophe, one week after my call to Radio Veritas in Manila., my story hit the national headlines with Dr. Punongbayan of Philvolcs confirming my story. This was the only time in history that such as story was ever broadcasted / printed.

Another week passed a devastating earthquake struck Russia with catastrophic effect, leveling one entire village without any survivor.

Now even with my mid-life, these dreams are coming back again, specially the Marikina Fault Line Story. However, this time it’s no longer just Metro Manila.

I am calling on everyone to organize vigil groups, and for those insomiacs like me, to do the same in their own homes.

Thank you for your indulgence in reading my story.

Partial System Blackout hits Mindanao Grid

2009-11-16T15:51:00.000+08:00

PARTIAL SYSTEM BLACKOUT HITS MINDANAO GRID
By:
Hio Tiao Lim

A partial System Blackout hit the Mindanao Grid today, November 16, 2009 at 2:33 PM

In the afternoon, affecting the South Eastern Mindanao Area, and the South Western

Mindanao Area, virtually isolating the Northern Mindanao Area. ( Source : NGCP )

Two voltage fluctuations preceded the blackout, giving rise to speculation that this is

Another sabotage attack on the transmission towers of the National Grid Corporation of

The Philippines, ( NGCP )

It comes at a time when the reserve capacity for the Mindanao Grid fell to a low 35 MW.

The Available Capacity for today was 1,330 MW, compared to the all-time high Peak

Demand of 1,295 MW.

Understanding Your Electric Bill

2009-11-16T07:46:00.000+08:00

UNDERSTANDING YOUR ELECTRIC BILL
AND
THE WAY TO REDUCE IT BY USING ELECTRICITY
EFFICIENTLY

THIS PAPER SIMPLIFIES THE PRESENT UNBUNDLED BILL OF ALL DISTRIBUTION UTILITIES REBUNDLING THE CHARGES INTO ITS BASIC COMPONENTS, NAMELY:

DEMAND CHARGES: ( IN P / KW ) THE CHARGE IMPOSED UPON THE SECONDARY RETAIL 3.1 CUSTOMERS AND THE PRIMARY RETAIL 4.1 CUSTOMERS OF DAVAO LIGHT AND POWER COMPANY., AND SIMILARLY CLASSIFIED DEMAND CUSTOMERS OF OTHER DISTRIBUTION UTILITIES. DEMAND IS MEASURED AT THE HIGHEST ENERGY CONSUMED IN ANY 15 MINUTE INTERVALS OVER THE DURATION OF THE BILLING MONTH.

ENERGY CHARGES: ( IN P / KWHS) THE CHARGE ON ENERGY (KWHS) CONSUMED, IMPOSED ON ALL CUSTOMERS IN THE DLPC FRANCHISE AREA, AS WELL AS ALL CUSTOMERS IN OTHER DISTRIBUTION UTILITIES.

FIXED MONTHLY CHARGES: THE CHARGE IMPOSED ON ALL CUSTOMERS CLASS IN THE DLPC FRANCHISE AREA, AS WELL AS OTHER DISTRIBUTION UTILITIES, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE WAS ENERGY CONSUMED OR NOT.

AREAS WHERE WE CAN DO SOMETHING
TO REDUCE
OUR CONSUMPTION AND OUR ELECTRIC BILL
FIXED MONTHLY CHARGES:

THERE IS NO WAY TO AVOID THESE CHARGES, SINCE THESE ARE MONTHLY CHARGES BILLED, AND THIS CHARGE IS CONSIDERED THE MINIMUM CHARGE PER CUSTOMER PER MONTH.

DEMAND CHARGES:
THREE WAYS TO REDUCE THIS COMPONENT: 1.) STAGGERED START-UP OF MAJOR LOADS. 2.) PEAK SHAVING, BY TURNING OF SOME UNNECESSARY LOADS WHEN THE PEAKING HOURS APPROACHES OR, RUNNING GENERATORS TO SUPPLY THE NEEDS OF PART OF THE TOTAL LOAD. 3.) SHIFTING THE OPERATION HOURS.

ENERGY (KWHS) CHARGES:

PRACTICE ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES LIKE: USE THE APPROPRIATE TRANSFORMERS AND WIRE SIZE FOR THE LOAD, FOR RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS, USE THE RIGHT SIZED STEP-DOWN TRANSFORMERS FOR YOUR APPLIANCES, AVR’S INCLUDED.

REGULAR MAINTENANCE OF MAJOR LOADS: BY CLEANING REGULARLY AIRCONDITIONING UNITS, HEATING ELEMENTS, AND LIGHTING FIXTURES.

USE NATURAL LIGHTING WHENEVER AVAILABLE.

USE POWER FACTOR CORRECTION CAPACITORS FOR MAJOR LOADS, AND PLACE THESE AT THE NEAREST POINT BEFORE THE LOAD (EG. CONTROL SWITCH OR BREAKER)., FOR DEMAND CUSTOMERS. FOR RESIDENTIAL USERS PLACE THE “POWER SAVER” UNIT(S) NEAR THE MAIN PANEL BOARD.

FIXED MONTHLY CHARGES :

Present Rate Applied Rate

ERC CASE # 2009 - 041 RC

Residential : P 5.6410 per month P 5.6410 per month
Secondary Retail 2.1 212.1918 per month 453.7262 per month
Secondary Retail 3.1 1,147.4020 per month 2,474.4133 per month
PrimaryRetail 5.1 4,078.4881 per month 4,799.53 per month

Flat Lighting 5.1 29.6040 per month

DEMAND CHARGES

Secondary Retail 3.1 to be determined
Primary Retail 4.1 to be determined

ENERGY CHARGES ( in Kwhs as of June 2009 )

Residential P 6.256 per kwh
Secondary Retail 6.175 per kwh

Secondary Retail 3.1 for updating
Primary Retail 4.1 for updating
Flat Lighting 5.1 6.273 per kwh

November 2009 running updates

2009-11-15T16:34:00.000+08:00

The Peak Demand further rises to 1,295 MW as of today, November 16, 2009 :
With only 1,330 MW available due to the prevailing transmission constraints
there is only a 35 MW Reserve Power

October 2009 Situationer

2009-11-15T16:33:00.000+08:00

The month of October saw the Peak Demand for Mindanao Grid at 1,275 MW